Second Quarter East Hawaii Sales Report (2015) – Home Prices Projected to Spike

My how time flies! Hard to believe we have passed the mid-point of 2015! With the exception of the areas still recovering from the threat of lava (especially Nanawale, Ainaloa, Leilani, and likely Hawaiian Beaches), East Hawaii sales are moving right along.

(All numbers are residential / condo median numbers provided by Hawaii Information Service)

Hilo Sales Numbers & Pricing Continue to Trend Up

Interestingly, the median price of active listings in Hilo is less this year than last, which theoretically means one of two things: Either the gap between asking and sales price will decrease or the next reported median sales price point will decrease.

• The current median year-to-date sales price in the South Hilo area is $324,490.
• The median price of a home that moved to closing in Hawaiian Paradise Park (HPP) declined during this past quarter compared to last year (number of sales is up), but in looking to the future, the median price of homes moving to close indicates that this trend is reversing.
• There was little activity in Pacific Paradise Gardens while Volcano Golf and Country Club (VGCC) perked up.

 
There is compelling evidence that East Hawaii prices are about to spike in a big way. Remember, in simplest terms, supply and demand dictates pricing, so let’s look at things a different way. Using current numbers, the approximate demand for homes in Hilo over the next year will be 288 homes. With only 160 on the market, supply will not nearly meet current demand. Similarly, HPP demand should be around 244, but there is less than half that number currently for sale (113).

Even areas recently threatened by lava will not, in theory, have enough inventory to meet demand (Ainaloa: 28 demand/22 supply, Leilani: 36 demand/19 supply, Nanawale: 36 demand/12 supply).

Only VGCC deviates, but given the up-tick this past quarter, there’s a good possibility this area will trend upward as well.

Don’t See Your Neighborhood?

I wish space would allow me to cover every area, but as always, if you don’t see your neighborhood listed, I’m happy to provide a custom report. Keeping up with your neighborhood on a regular basis is very easy. All I need is your address/TMK and I can arrange for you to receive periodic factual updates right to your inbox. It’s the simplest way I know to determine if your piece of paradise is going up!!