While sales tell the past and big closing numbers get all the headlines, it’s every individual new contract that truly forecasts the current and immediate future outlook. Without new contracts, there are no new sales – it is a very cause and effect relationship as a healthy transactional pool keeps the market moving.
Aerial view of South Maui Coast, Hawaii
With that said, I am pleased to share…
The Onderko Index (TOI)
Where we are now, compared to where we were then. TOI – Somewhat bold, fully self-proclaimed…yet valid. With that said, I would like to give some insight into current market conditions by diving into a statistic not generally available to the public, let’s call it — the New Contract Volume (NCV) statistic.
New Contract Volume | Sales Per Day
Normal Market Conditions: 1/01 -3/12/2020
1/1/2020 – 3/12/2020
| Region | # of Days | # New Contracts | New Contract/Day | % + or – Norm | % New Contracts |
| Maui | 72 | 575 | 8.0 | 100% | |
| West Maui | 130 | 1.8 | 23% | ||
| South Maui | 219 | 3.0 | 38% | ||
| UpCountry | 67 | 0.9 | 12% | ||
| Central | 94 | 1.3 | 16% | ||
| North Shore | 36 | 0.5 | 6% | ||
| East | 2 | 0.03 | 0% | ||
| Molokai | 23 | 0.3 | 4% | ||
| Lanai | 4 | 0.1 | 1% |
The Explanation: Taking what began on 03/13/2020 called current market conditions and comparing this time to the then (01/01/2020 – 03/12/2020), known as normal market conditions. The goal was to come up with a new contract per day average figure and compare the current conditions with the recent and, for the most part, modern-day normal.
Current Market Conditions: 3/13/2020 – Current
3/13/2020 – Current
| Date Range | Region | # of Days | # New Contracts | New Contract/Day | % + or – Norm | % New Contracts |
| 03/13/2020 – Current | Maui | 187 | 1072 | 5.7 | -28% | 100% |
| West Maui | 227 | 1.2 | -33% | 21% | ||
| South Maui | 323 | 1.7 | -43% | 30% | ||
| UpCountry | 130 | 0.7 | -25% | 12% | ||
| Central | 260 | 1.4 | 6% | 24% | ||
| North Shore | 92 | 0.5 | -2% | 9% | ||
| East | 7 | 0.0 | 35% | 1% | ||
| Molokai | 25 | 0.1 | -58% | 2% | ||
| Lanai | 8 | 0.0 | -23% | 1% |
$3M+ Transactions
| Date Range | Region | # of Days | # New Contracts | New Contract/Day | % + or – Norm | % New Contracts |
| 03/13/2020 – Current | Maui | 187 | 38 | 0.2 | -19% | 48% |
| West Maui | 18 | 0.1 | -1% | 47% | ||
| South Maui | 19 | 0.1 | -33% | 50% | ||
| UpCountry | 0 | 0.0 | 0% | 0% | ||
| Central | 0 | 0.0 | 100% | 0% | ||
| North Shore | 0 | 0.0 | 0% | 0% | ||
| East | 0 | 0.0 | 0% | 0% | ||
| Molokai | 0 | 0.0 | 0% | 0% | ||
| Lanai | 1 | 0.0 | 100% | 3% |
The Forecast: The higher the % above the norm, the stronger prices will remain. The lower % or negative % from the norm, the more prices will soften for properties that need to sell in the immediate and near future. The longer this lasts, the more impact we will see.
05/01/2020 – Current
| Date Range | Region | # of Days | # New Contracts | New Contract/Day | % + or – Norm | % New Contracts |
| 05/01/2020 – Current | Maui | 138 | 932 | 6.8 | -15% | 100% |
| West Maui | 196 | 1.4 | -21% | 21% | ||
| South Maui | 286 | 2.1 | -32% | 31% | ||
| UpCountry | 107 | 0.8 | -17% | 11% | ||
| Central | 227 | 1.6 | 26% | 24% | ||
| North Shore | 82 | 0.6 | 19% | 9% | ||
| East | 7 | 0.1 | 83% | 1% | ||
| Molokai | 22 | 0.2 | -50% | 2% | ||
| Lanai | 5 | 0.0 | -35% | 1% |
$3M+ Transactions
| Date Range | Region | # of Days | # New Contracts | New Contract/Day | % + or – Norm | % New Contracts |
| 05/01/2020 – Current | Maui | 138 | 30 | 0.2 | -13% | 100% |
| West Maui | 14 | 0.1 | 4% | 47% | ||
| South Maui | 16 | 0.1 | -24% | 53% | ||
| UpCountry | 0 | 0.0 | 0% | 0% | ||
| Central | 0 | 0.0 | 0% | 0% | ||
| North Shore | 0 | 0.0 | 0% | 0% | ||
| East | 0 | 0.0 | 0% | 0% | ||
| Molokai | 0 | 0.0 | 0% | 0% | ||
| Lanai | 0 | 0.0 | 0% | 0% |
Normal Market Conditions: % New Contracts vs. Region
Current Market Conditions: % New Contracts vs. Region
If you are in the market for buying or selling Maui real estate or have any questions about the area or the market in general, please feel free to contact me. I welcome the opportunity to give you information on my previous sales performance and marketing strategies. Or if you’re curious about what your property is worth in today’s market, it would be my pleasure to provide you with property information and a value assessment free of any sales pitch.
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